There's an old saying that crisis and opportunity are synonymous. We
are seeing this play out in the current shutdown as it's giving people
the opportunity to sit at home and ponder what has real value and is
essential to their well being. It could be time for this thought process
to trickle-up and for us to re-evaluate the important aggregate
measures of our overall economy. Many people are conflicted between
restarting the business economy and weighing it against other outcomes
such as health, safety, and sanity. Do these outcomes necessarily need
to be in conflict with each other? Before the shutdown started Andrew Yang outlined this issue in his speeches during his US presidential
campaign.
Over 100 years ago GDP was invented as a way to measure
the aggregate value of a country's production. It provided a starting
point for measuring standard of living but is rife with problems as it
is difficult to determine if GDP growth comes from either real growth in
the quantity and quality of goods and services, or simply inflationary growth
through higher prices. The GDP Deflator and CPI methods were created to
mathematically tease out these effects on average. But the big hidden
problem with using GDP as a measure of well being is that it doesn't
include non-market transactions such as hidden markets and home
production. Home production includes cooking, cleaning, caring for
children, shopping, and doing odd jobs around the house. As Andrew Yang
points out in his speeches, the economic value assigned to his wife
staying at home and caring for his children is zero.
So how can
we measure home production to infer its economic value? According to an
OECD report in 1992, there are three possible methods: Global
Substitute(GL), Specialist Substitute(SP), and Opportunity Cost(OC). The
GL method measures housework based on the average market wage of hiring
an average person to do the work. The SP approach uses the specific
market wage for that household task, whereas the OC method uses your own
wage to represent the lost time. Housework as a percentage of private
consumption in Canada in 1986 was measured using these methods. It was
82.7% with the OC method, 70.7% using SP, and 38.4% with the GL
approach.
Whatever measure is used to account for home
production, it is clearly a large part of the real economy. I believe
that in this current economic shutdown the economy didn't fully
shutdown, it merely shifted to the hidden parts of society. You can see
this at a local level in Guelph. Local Boy Scouts are using 3D printers
to make medical safety masks. Local seniors are dusting off their sewing
machine to make cloth masks. Local car drivers are offering free
grocery delivery for the house ridden. Local environmentalists are
cleaning up garbage near highways and rivers. All of this hidden work is
real and adds value to our community.
What do you think?
Is GDP per person an accurate measure of your personal well-being?
Should home production be counted as part of GDP?
Is Basic Income a way to give a flat economic value to home production?
Can you estimate the economic value of your housework through the OC, SP, or GL method?
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